2026-27 Snowfall Outlook: The El Niño recipe, Part 2
A super El Niño is just one ingredient to the larger picture of making a winter forecast. Snowfall will vary depending on the exact setups.
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Now that you know what a Super El Niño may bring this winter, let’s look at the history books to see what past strong El Niño winters have brought. Snowfall is often the main focus, so let’s take a deeper dive.
One season brought only half an inch of snow, while another brought nearly 3 feet.
In the early 1980s, we saw a warmer-than-average winter, some moderate snow events and more than 2 feet of snow for the season at Central Park.
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The winter of 1997-98 was much warmer than average, with plenty of rain but only half an inch of snow for the entire season.
Then came the more recent episode in 2015-16, another much-warmer-than-average winter that included the Blizzard of 2016.
That is why forecasting winter is a lot like making soup. The super El Niño is the main ingredient, but adding a little salt and pepper can change the outcome.
In this case, the other ingredients include the Arctic jet stream and the subtropical jet stream. If they do not buckle, cold air remains locked farther north and storms may not form. Or, if storms do form, they may bring rain or a mix of rain and snow.
But in some cases, the jet stream can buckle, allowing cold air to sink south while moisture moves north. That setup can still produce a blizzard, even during a season with above-average temperatures.
