WHAT'S NEW: A winter storm watch will be in effect from 3 a.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday.

WHAT'S NEXT: The confidence is growing for a major winter storm this weekend.

Confidence has increased that a major winter storm will impact the region Sunday into Monday, with the potential for significant snowfall and major travel disruptions. Forecast confidence is higher than previous updates as colder air and storm track details have come into better alignment. An arctic air mass will already be firmly in place ahead of the system, setting the stage for an all-snow event for most areas, especially inland and across the tri-state region. Sunday appears to be the primary day for snowfall, with impacts lingering into Sunday night and possibly early Monday. There could be some mixing of sleet late Sunday and Sunday night which would hold accumulations down.

What has changed is the growing agreement among forecast models. Global ensembles, along with newer AI-based guidance, are converging on a more amplified and slightly farther-north storm track than earlier projections. This favors increased moisture reaching the region while still keeping the storm far enough offshore to limit warmer air intrusion. Ensemble means place the storm near the classic 40N/70W benchmark, supporting a high-confidence snowfall scenario. Probabilistic guidance now shows greater than a 90% chance of at least 6 inches of snow regionwide, with around a 50% chance of totals exceeding a foot in some areas—an unusually strong signal at this lead time.

In addition, the cold air mass arriving late Friday will be one of the coldest in several years, with daytime highs in the teens this weekend and temperatures remaining below freezing into next week. These arctic conditions will support high snow ratios early in the event, increasing accumulation potential. While some uncertainty remains—particularly near the coast where a brief mix cannot be ruled out later Sunday—the overall message from the models is clear: The risk of a high-impact winter storm has increased, and preparations should be underway as forecast refinements continue over the coming days.