Winter is giving us a real taste of how cold things can get during this time of year. Temperatures this morning were in the single digits and low teens, and it will be even colder on Wednesday morning. It could be the coldest start to a morning in a year. (Last Jan. 23, we were at 13 degrees.) The core of the Arctic air will influence the forecast tonight.
By Wednesday, this bitter airmass begins to slide eastward. While the forecast remains cold for tomorrow, with less wind, it won't feel as biting. It will be a very nice day. Sun and clouds share the sky, and temperatures are just a few degrees shy of where they should be this time of year.
The winds will eventually freshen up, but the wind direction will try to briefly bring milder air back for Thursday. Thursday is the pick of the week weather-wise. It's sunny and temperatures are slightly warmer than they should be for this time of year. Get out and enjoy the day. It would be a good time to take care of any leftover snowy or icy spots because it only lasts a day. The cold that is coming is really cold.
There is a lot of chatter on social media about this weekend being a snowy one. Yes, I have seen the models. They are all over the place. Social media "meteorologists" are all over this, posting various snow total maps and posting only the snowiest solutions, without any context for what the models have done in the past or how the weather pattern could evolve over time.
Remember who your trusted weather sources are. The News 12 Storm Watch Team should be that trusted source to help navigate the social media weather waters. We aren't going to scream the loudest with bombastic weather headlines to garner likes and create a false narrative.
When you see that crazy headline, ask yourself, "Why are they posting about a storm that far out?" Your engagement makes them money, whether they are right or wrong. They are not holding themselves accountable. They aren't doing anything to make the science better. I would argue they are making it worse.
I have seen what the models are spitting out. I know the biases of the models. I have been tracking how each model has behaved this season. It is still too early for a "forecast" of any merit. Any real meteorologist who tells you they know exactly where this storm is going to wind up this far out in time is lying. We will have a better understanding on Thursday. Stay tuned, and as always, I hope you are all doing well and staying healthy.
~Dave