WASHINGTON (AP) - Inflation jumped at its fastest pace in nearly
40 years last month, a 7% spike from a year earlier that is increasing
household expenses, eating into wage gains and heaping pressure on President
Joe Biden and the Federal Reserve to address what has become the biggest threat
to the U.S. economy.
Prices rose sharply in 2021 for cars, gas, food and furniture as
part of a rapid recovery from the pandemic recession. Vast infusions of
government aid and ultra-low interest rates helped spur demand for goods, while
vaccinations gave people confidence to dine out and travel.
As Americans ramped up spending, supply chains remained squeezed
by shortages of workers and raw materials and this magnified price pressures.
The Labor Department reported Wednesday that a measure of inflation that
excludes volatile food and gas prices jumped 5.5% in December, also the highest
in decades. Overall inflation rose 0.5% from November, down from 0.8% the
previous month.
Price gains could slow further as snags in supply chains ease, but
most economists say inflation won’t fall back to pre-pandemic levels anytime
soon.
“U.S. inflation pressures show no sign of easing,’’ said James
Knightley, chief international economist at the financial services company ING.
“It hasn’t been this high since the days of Thatcher and Reagan. We could be
close to the peak, but the risk is that inflation stays higher for longer.’’
High inflation isn't only a problem for the U.S. In the 19
European countries that use the euro currency, inflation rose 5% in December
compared with a year earlier, the biggest increase on record.
Companies large and small are adapting as best they can.
Nicole Pomije, a bakery owner in the Minneapolis area, said she
plans to raise prices for cookies because of surging ingredient costs.
Her basic cookies were priced at 99 cents each, while premium
versions were selling for $1.50 each. But Pomije said she will have to jack up
the prices of her basic cookies to the premium price.
“We have to make money,” she said. “We don’t want to lose our
customers. But I think we might.”
Businesses struggling to hire have hiked pay, but rising prices
for goods and services have eroded those income gains for many Americans.
Lower-income families have felt it the most, and polls show that inflation has
started displacing even the coronavirus as a public concern.
The United States hasn’t seen anything like it since the early
1980s. Back then, Fed Chair Paul Volcker responded by pushing interest rates to
painful levels - the prime rate for banks’ best customers hit 20% in 1980 - and
sent the economy into a deep recession. But Volcker succeeded in taming
inflation that had been running at double-digit year-over-year levels for much
of 1979-1981.
High inflation has put President Biden on the defensive. His
administration, echoing officials at the Fed, initially suggested that price
increases would be temporary. Now that inflation has persisted, Biden and some
congressional Democrats have begun to blame large corporations. They say meat
producers and other industries are taking advantage of pandemic-induced
shortages to drive up prices and profits. But even some left-of-center
economists disagree with that diagnosis.
On Wednesday, the president issued a statement arguing that the
drop in gas prices in December and a smaller increase in food costs showed
progress.
One trend experts fear is a wage-price spiral. That happens when
workers seek more pay to offset higher costs, and then companies raise costs
further to cover that higher pay. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Powell told a Senate panel that he has yet to see evidence that wages are
broadly driving up prices across the economy.
The biggest driver of inflation, according to economists, are
mismatches between supply and demand. Used car prices have soared more than 37%
over the past year because a shortage of semiconductors has prevented auto
companies from making enough new cars. Supply-chain constraints have driven
furniture prices nearly 14% higher over the past year.
Shoppers are feeling the pinch all around them, from the gas
station to the grocery store.
Vicki Bernardo Hill, 65, an occupational therapist in
Gaithersburg, Maryland, says she no longer throws extra canned food, boxes of
cereal or bakery items into her shopping cart at the Giant Food store.
“I am trying to stick to my list and buying things that are on
sale, ” said Hill.
Because she couldn't find a good deal on a used car, Hill recently
bought a new Mazda, spending $5,000 more than she had planned.
Inflation could ease as the omicron wave fades and as Americans
shift more of their spending to services such as travel, eating out and
movie-going. That would reduce the demand for goods and help clear supply
chains.
But some higher prices, such as rents, could prove to be stickier.
Rental costs, which have accelerated since summer, rose 0.4% in December, the
third consecutive monthly increase. That's significant because housing costs
make up one-third of the government's consumer price index.
Powell told Congress that if it becomes necessary to fight high
inflation more aggressively, the Federal Reserve is prepared to accelerate the
interest rate hikes it plans to
begin this year. The Fed's benchmark short-term rate, now pegged near zero, is
expected to be bumped up at least three times this year.
Rate increases would make borrowing for a home or car more
expensive, and therefore help to cool off the economy.
Some economists and members of Congress fear the Fed has acted too
slowly to head off inflation and that this could eventually force even sharper
rate increases that could damage the economy.
Republicans in Congress and even some liberal economists say Biden
deserves at least some of the blame for high inflation, arguing that the
financial rescue package he pushed through Congress last March added
significant stimulus to an already strengthening economy.