Sunday's weather situation is complex. A storm is expected to emerge off the Carolina coast as the jet stream forces energy toward the tri-state region. 

There are two possible scenarios with the coastal storm.

Scenario 1 is the most likely, and it is currently expected to take a southern track, which could give coastal and southern New Jersey and the East End of Long Island with a glancing blow of light snow. The rest of the region -- from central and northern New Jersey, New York City, Westchester, the Hudson Valley and Connecticut -- would likely end up dry and overcast with a rogue flurry. This "fringe effect" won't blanket most places except for areas south and east along the coast, with light accumulations up to 2 to 3 inches. 

Scenario 2 -- an unlikely outcome -- would take a more northerly track and place the storm closer to the region. This outcome would hit the tri-state with plowable snow that can be especially significantly higher south and east. The overall trend this season can be described by storms taking a more northerly track than expected, but a pattern change could dilute the "big storm" chance with an arctic outbreak of air that may be strong enough over the region to suppress the storm south. If the arctic air is weaker than expected, it could take the northern track. 

 Timing and impacts are expected to be clearer Friday evening and Saturday morning.