Americans who have long enjoyed the benefits of historically low interest rates
will have to adapt to a very different environment as the Federal Reserve
embarks on what's likely to be a prolonged period of rate hikes to fight
inflation.
Record-low mortgage
rates below 3%, reached last year, are already gone. Credit card interest rates
and the costs of an auto loan will also likely move up. Savers may receive
somewhat better returns, depending on their bank, while returns on long-term bond
funds will likely suffer.
The Fed's initial
quarter-point rate hike Wednesday in its benchmark short-term rate won't have
much immediate impact on most Americans' finances. But with inflation raging at
four-decade highs, economists and investors expect the central bank to enact
the fastest pace of rate hikes since 2005. That would mean higher borrowing
rates well into the future.
On Wednesday, the Fed's
policymakers collectively signaled that they expect to boost their key rate up
to seven times this year, raising its benchmark rate to between 1.75% and 2% by
year's end. The officials expect four additional hikes in 2023, which would
leave their benchmark rate near 3%.
Chair Jerome Powell
hopes that by making borrowing gradually more expensive, the Fed will succeed
in cooling demand for homes, cars and other goods and services, thereby slowing
inflation.
Yet the risks are high.
With inflation likely to stay elevated, in part because of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine, the Fed may have to drive borrowing costs even higher than it now
expects. Doing so potentially could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
“The impact of a single
quarter-point interest rate hike is inconsequential on the household budget,”
said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com. “But there is a
cumulative effect that can be quite significant, both on the household budget
as well as the broader economy.”
Here are some questions
and answers about what the rate hikes could mean for consumers and businesses:
___
I’M CONSIDERING BUYING A
HOUSE. WILL MORTGAGE RATES GO STEADILY HIGHER?
They already have in the
past few months, partly in anticipation of the Fed's moves, and will probably
keep doing so.
Still, mortgage rates
don’t necessarily rise in tandem with the Fed’s rate increases. Sometimes, they
even move in the opposite direction. Long-term mortgages tend to track the rate
on the 10-year Treasury note, which, in turn, is influenced by a variety of
factors. These include investors’ expectations for future inflation and global
demand for U.S. Treasurys.
Global turmoil, like
Russia's invasion, often spurs a “flight to safety" response among
investors around the world: Many rush to buy Treasurys, which are regarded as
the world's safest asset. Higher demand for the 10-year Treasury would lower
its yield, which would then reduce mortgage rates.
For now, though, faster
inflation and strong U.S. economic growth are sending the 10-year Treasury rate
up. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage, in turn, has jumped almost a full
percentage point since late December to 3.85%, according to mortgage buyer
Freddie Mac.
HOW WILL THAT AFFECT THE
HOUSING MARKET?
If you're looking to buy
a home and are frustrated by the lack of available houses, which has led to
bidding wars and eye-watering prices, that's unlikely to change anytime soon.
Economists say that
higher mortgage rates will discourage some would-be purchasers. And average
home prices, which have been soaring at about a 20% annual rate, could at least
rise at a slower pace.
But Odeta Kushi, deputy
chief economist at First American Financial Corporation, notes that there is
such strong demand for homes, as the large millennial generation enters its
prime home-buying years, that the housing market won't cool by much. Supply
hasn't kept up. Many builders are struggling with shortages of parts and labor.
“We'll still have a
pretty robust housing market his year,” Kushi said.
WHAT ABOUT OTHER KINDS
OF LOANS?
For users of credit
cards, home equity lines of credit and other variable-interest debt, rates
would rise by roughly the same amount as the Fed hike, usually within one or
two billing cycles. That’s because those rates are based in part on banks’
prime rate, which moves in tandem with the Fed.
Those who don’t qualify
for low-rate credit cards might be stuck paying higher interest on their
balances, and the rates on their cards would rise as the prime rate does.
Should the Fed decide to
raise rates 10 times or more over the next two years - a realistic possibility
- that would significantly boost interest payments.
The Fed’s rate hikes
won’t necessarily raise auto loan rates as much. Car loans tend to be more
sensitive to competition, which can slow the rate of increases.
WILL I BE ABLE TO EARN
MORE ON MY SAVINGS?
Probably, though not
likely by very much. And it depends on where your savings, if you have any, are
parked.
Savings, certificates of
deposit and money market accounts don’t typically track the Fed’s changes.
Instead, banks tend to capitalize on a higher-rate environment to try to
thicken their profits. They do so by imposing higher rates on borrowers,
without necessarily offering any juicer rates to savers.
This is particularly
true for large banks now. They've been flooded with savings as a result of
government financial aid and reduced spending by many wealthier Americans
during the pandemic. They won't need to raise savings rates to attract more
deposits or CD buyers.
But online banks and
others with high-yield savings accounts will likely be an exception. These
accounts are known for aggressively competing for depositors. The only catch is
that they typically require significant deposits.
If you're invested in
mutual funds or exchange-traded funds that hold long-term bonds, they will
become a riskier investment. Typically, existing long-term bonds lose value as
newer bonds are issued at higher yields.